Wednesday, January 30, 2019

Consumer Versus Producer Economic Growth

A recent Wall Street Journal article celebrates Utah's booming labor force. More workers translate into more wages demanding more goods and services. The consumption of more goods and services increases the need for more employees so supply can meet the demand. The expert take on Utah's exceptional virtuous circle reads more like a tautology:

“Without people, you can’t have jobs, and without jobs, you can’t have an economy,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.

In this country, you gotta attract the people first. Then when you get the people, you get the jobs. Then when you get the jobs, then you get the economy. All hail the Scarface approach to economic development.

This population pyramid scheme built the Sun Belt. As long as fools rush in, all is well. But when the people stop coming, the tide goes out and reveals a bunch of metros swimming naked. Consumer city has no clothes.

In the realm of Bizarro Scarface, you gotta attract the economy first. Then when you get the economy, you get the jobs. Then when you get the jobs, then you get the people. "Without economic restructuring, you can't have jobs, and without jobs, you can't have people," said Tony Montana, chief economist at Producer Cities.

In developed and developing countries, demographic trends point towards quality over quantity. The part of the world where consumer city works is shrinking with producer city replacing it. The places where less residents produce and consume greater goods and services thrive. The Sun Belt grows to consume what the Rust Belt produces.