Tuesday, December 11, 2018

Geographic Heuristics: Rust Belt Is Rural

An Appalachian city is an oxymoron. Welcome to hillbilly urbanism. What about the cities of rural Iowa? Does not compute. There is rural. There is urban. Never the twain shall meet.

The US Department of Agriculture uses a similar dichotomy, metro and nonmetro. However, not all metro counties are alike. Some are large. Some are small. The same applies to nonmetro areas, many sporting urban areas of varying population size. Understanding the geographic variance within urban and rural results in a continuum of a "nine-part county classification":



Metro counties are straightforward, broken up into three population categories (large, medium, and small). Size matters for nonmetro, too. But there are six types, not three. The distinction concerns proximity to metro counties. Why would that matter? At some point, sprawl might graduate a nonmetro county to a metro one. In fact, a critical mass of commuters to a nearby metro area is part of the definition of adjacent counties.

The same could be said for smaller metro counties. Proximity to the largest metro counties confers similar spillovers, somewhat like the Census definition of combined statistical areas. The United States harbors a few urban galaxies such as Chicagoland. The end-all-be-all is the New York City agglomeration of agglomerations. Introducing the cosmopolitan Rust Belt:

“Allentown is the third-largest city in Pennsylvania and one of the youngest [in terms of population] in the state,” [Becky A. Bradley, executive director of the Lehigh Valley Planning Commission in Allentown] adds. “The whole downtown has been transformed within the past three years. We’re having an amazing renaissance. But the Lehigh Valley didn’t lose industries because we were never part of the Rust Belt. We were always linked to Philadelphia and New York because of our easy access, whether it was canals, roads, rails, or air.”

The Lehigh Valley was never part of the Rust Belt? “Well, we’re living here in Allentown and they’re closing all the factories down,” I yanked on my bow tie and squawked to my wife, and anyone else in ear shot, “Why does anyone think we want to hear that song here. We’ve spent the last 35 years working to overcome it!” Sure, Allentown was always linked to Philadelphia and New York. Both places were also part of the Rust Belt. Much of Philadelphia, like Baltimore, remains Rust Belt. And as New York has shed its economic malaise and Philadelphia revitalizes, so does Allentown.

The Rust Belt isn't so much spatial as it is temporal. Dig into the past of any city that employed substantial numbers in manufacturing and find at least one decade of Rust Belt. As economic restructuring filled out the five boroughs, globalization diffused to Philadelphia. It starts with a few neighborhoods until the impact shows up in the regional data. Bam! Philly is no longer a left behind place. By then, it's the turn of the Lehigh Valley. Is York next?

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